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The US Dollar Index fell during the course of the week, testing the bottom of the hammer from the previous week, and as a result we are looking for some type of support below in order to start buying again. The 94 level below is supportive, and as a result we would be buyers on supportive candles. Ultimately, the market should continue to find plenty of interest as the US dollar is considered to be one of the more safe currencies to own at the moment due to the strengthening US economic situation. The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance above the 0.72 level to turn things back around slightly.

With this, it is only a matter of time before we break down and continue selling off towards the $2.50 level. As far as buying is concerned, we have no interest in doing so because we feel the market will break down to lower levels given enough time. The downtrend has been strong for ages now, and with that there’s no point in fighting it. We crashed into the $50 handle, and we recognize that the $48 level below is massively supportive. We essentially think that is a “floor” in this market place, and a break down below that level would be very negative, probably opening the door to reach towards the $44 level given enough time.

Alternately though, we can break above the top the shooting star from the previous week, I believe that the market could break out to the upside and then eventually reach towards the $60 level, if not the $68 level above. The natural gas markets fell during the course of the week, and as a result we have formed the negative candle that you see on the chart now. The $2.60 level below should be the beginning of significant support leading all the way down to the $2.50 level. Any type of supportive candle in that area means that we should make another attempt to reach and perhaps even break above the $3 handle. On the other hand, if we break below the $2.50 level, I feel that we will continue to go lower as we have on the longer-term.

Dollar steady after Fed’s rate pause hints, yen rises

The light sweet crude market had a very volatile week as we went back and forth, testing the $44 level above for resistance. We did in fact find it there, so by the time we close for the week we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star sitting at the very bottom of the downtrend is a very negative sign indeed, and suggests that the matter what happens, the sellers are going to be involved. The $40 level just below is massively supportive, so if we can break down below there, we feel that this market will continue to drift much lower. The WTI Crude Oil market had a very volatile week, but most importantly broke higher so still it appears that we are trying to continue to the upside. The market will of course have quite a bit of psychological resistance at the $50 level, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant number.

• Ultimately, we are more bullish than bearish of this market but recognize that the 2 shooting stars in a row more than likely means that we have to take a bit of a break on the upside.
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• We believe that the $50 level will of course offer quite a bit of resistance, and as a result we would look for selling opportunities near that area with even more interest than most other areas.
• Gold markets fell significantly during the course of the week, breaking down to the $1215 level.
• The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but bounced enough to form a nice-looking hammer.

Additionally, concerns about earnings may have encouraged some investors to lighten up their long positions. The euro area achieved a trade in goods excess of 24.6 billion euros for May, according to Eurostat, as exports to the rest of the world totalled 167.4 billion euros, an increase of 2% from the corresponding month last year. Euro area inflation has crept away from negative figures for the first time since January this year, as in June inflation was 0.1%, up from minus 0.1% that was recorded in May. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose by 1.1 metric tons to 2,003.1 on Wednesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The U.S. economy shouldn’t sustain much damage from the Brexit vote and may warrant as many as two interest-rate increases before the end of the year, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Wednesday.

Average True Range (ATR)

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When you focus on gold, you should sharpen the focus of your lens on the dollar system. As history confirms, gold can both increase and decrease under inflationary circumstances. It is also the case when considering the opposite scenario, which is deflation. It all depends on how well the dollar system is performing (how well is both dollar as a currency and dollar understood as dollar denominated assets; bonds, stocks, derivatives, credits etc.). This is the most common myth and it must be busted as technical analysis is more about the high risk to reward ration than the winning rate. Assume Naveen makes 4 winning trades out of 10 while Saurav makes 7 winning trades out of 10.

Rupee rises by 24 paise to 82.10 against US dollar on FII flows

Because of this, we will simply look to the short-term charts in order to place trades. Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, as we have seen so much bearish pressure over the longer term. Ultimately though, we think that the market could be trying to find some type of support. Nonetheless, we feel that this is going to be an intense type of volatility that most traders will shun. We think that the Brent market will probably underperform the light sweet crude market, and with this a bit of caution will be needed to be adhered to in order to trade this market safely.

• Base Metals remained largely range bound last week but did witness some volatility backed by the FED decision.
• This tells us that the direction of the dollar in 2016 will be largely determined by the movement in the Euro.
• Prospects of improved rains during the weekend further pressurized the prices.
• I believe that sooner or later we will break out and if we do the market should continue to go higher at that point.
• At this point in time, sooner or later we will get the right supportive candle to start buying, and therefore I would be willing to jump into this market.

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Currency Strength and Central Bank and Gold?

I still believe that the $18 level below will be a bit of a “floor”, and as a result it’s probably only a matter of time before buyers return. However, we do not have anything on this chart that suggests that you should start buying right now. With that being the case, I am patient, but I do recognize that sooner or later we should get a nice buying opportunity. The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, slicing through the 0.75 handle.

This hammer was preceded by another hammer during the previous week, so it looks like we are continuing to try to build momentum to break out to the upside. The 1.35 level above continues to be massive resistance, and the psychological barrier. If we can get above that level, it becomes more of a buy-and-hold type of situation. We like buying pullbacks as well, as there is more than enough support below. The EUR/GBP pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support at the 0.70 level to turn things around.

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The deals follow a period of relative quiet as buyers and sellers failed to agree on valuations amid oil’s decline. North America, home to many higher-cost shale drillers, saw the fewest transactions last year since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Benchmark Brent crude averaged $35.21 a barrel in the first quarter of 2016, the lowest in more than a decade. They aim to predict future market movements and help a trader to be oriented in the market.

This is an area that of course will attract a lot of attention due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number. Ultimately, the market should make a decision one way or the other, but right now it certainly looks like the market is trying to break down. If we can get below the 0.69 level, the market should continue to go much lower. A break above the top of the range probably sends this market to reach towards the 0.73 level again.

Taking out $18.90 then falling back below this level will indicate the presence of sellers. A close below $18.62 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Asian shares extended gains to eight-month highs, on track for a solid weekly rise, as better-than-expected economic data from China lifted risk sentiment that was already buoyant after record highs on Wall Street. The U.S. dollar extended its gains and scaled a three-week high against the yen. Gold prices dipped this morning on a firmer dollar and surging Asian shares and were set for the first weekly decline since May, after falling to a two-week low in the previous session.

Fibonacci is another excellent forex indicator that indicates the exact direction of the market, and it is the golden ratio called 1.618. When it comes to measuring the price volatility of a particular security, the Bollinger bands indicator is used to determine the entry and exit points for a trade. Another great source of sentiment analysis can be obtained from the COT report, contains information about where the big players are placing their money. Whether you want to grow your wealth, save for your child’s education, or plan for your retirement, our team of experts is here to guide you every step of the way.

Ultimately, short-term trades are the only thing that you’ll one likely have an opportunity with. The prime factor supporting prices in the short term is the decision of the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold. There is a very strong correlation between oil prices and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. Buyers need to use more of their own currency to purchase one barrel and demand declines. Oil price moves down to compensate for the exchange rate appreciation, according to the report.

Dollar firm on Fed rate hike view, focus on China data

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Just about everyone is on the same page for a June rate hike, but after that date, things get a bit cloudy with some investors calling for anywhere from 1 to 3 additional increases. The dollar is likely to maintain an uptrend throughout the year, but it we could see a two-directional market at times. Stockpiles stand at 3.756 trillion cubic feet, 14% above the five-year average for this time of year. This is why traders should continue to treat any sizable rally as a fresh shorting opportunity. Nearby Natural Gas futures ended December by posting a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom as forecasts for colder weather the first two weeks of January boosted demand expectations. Weekly inventory data released on December 31 showed that stockpiles of natural gas shrank more than expected the week-ending December 25, helping to support the market.

At this point, looks like we will probably try to grind higher but it will be easier to trade off of shorter-term charts than longer-term ones. The EUR/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around and fell apart, especially as it was announced that the UK had decided to leave the European Union. That of course is a very negative sign for the Euro in general and risk assets. This pair is very sensitive to risk appetite in general, so having said that it’s not surprising that this market fell. Rallies will end up being selling opportunities going forward until we can get above the 121 handle. The natural gas markets rose during the course of the week, testing the $3 level.

However, we could not break above the 1.30 level and hold it, so at this point in time it’s not until we break above that level that I would be willing to buy this market. Ultimately, if we can break down below the range for the previous week, we could then drop down and test the lows again at the 1.24 level. While this isn’t quite a shooting star, it does suggest that there is a lot of resistance above. A break down below $17 should send this market looking for the $16 level next. At this point in time, precious metals do seem to be getting a bit overall in what is almost certainly going to be a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future.

The US dollar continues to be the strongest currency in the world, and therefore it’s not a surprise if that happens. The EUR/GBP pair initially rallied during the course of the week but turned back around as the area above the 0.78 level proved to be a bit too resistive. By doing so, we did up forming a shooting star for the second candle in a row, so with that we believe that the market is probably going to roll over in the short-term. However, there is more than enough support below at the 0.75 handle to keep this market somewhat afloat. With that, we believe that the market will eventually reach the 0.80 handle given enough time. The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but ultimately settled on a hammer.

That improving balance has been the driving force behind https://1investing.in/-price gains in the spring and summer that keep it hovering near one-year highs, said Peter Donovan, broker for Liquidity Energy in New York. The agriculture ministry of Egypt said that a high level committee has been formed to try and resolve trade standoff with Russia over agricultural commodities. A team will be send by Egypt to Russia at the end of September to discuss the trade standoff, just ahead of the start of its citrus export season, they added.